2023 was one of the buzziest years for film ever. From the Barbenheimer craze that filled theaters in the summer to the SAG-AFTRA strikes, the film industry saw its fair share of highs and lows in what could be called its first post-Covid year. The 96th Academy Awards, which air tonight on ABC, represents the final, and biggest, celebration of the work done by directors, actors, and crew members to entertain audiences last year. But which films deserve to win? Which films will the Motion Picture Academy choose to award? Here are my predictions for this year’s Oscars. 

Best Picture – “Oppenheimer”

The biopic covering the life and legacy of the father of the atomic bomb is the quintessential Best Picture. Popular both with critics and at the box office, it’s a film that defines 2023 and represents filmmaking as a craft at its best. While this is an all-time year for film, including movies like “Poor Things,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “The Holdovers”, “Anatomy of a Fall,” and “The Zone of Interest,” “Oppenheimer” is the most nominated film and has won enough prerequisite awards to make this feel like a safe pick.

Best Director – Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”

Christopher Nolan is one of the most popular directors working today. The Academy has often drawn criticism for excluding him, but now it seems like his moment to finally pick up a trophy. “Oppenheimer” is a film that only worked as well as it did because he was the visionary behind it. He was able to distill a nearly 800-page biography into an emotional, gripping epic about the consequences of science — a shining example of Oscar-worthy work.

Best Actor – Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer” as J. Robert Oppenheimer

While I would love for Paul Giamatti to pick up an Oscar for his brilliant work in “The Holdovers,” Cillian Murphy has virtually swept the award season. To his credit, he gives a masterful performance, successfully bringing haunting humanity to an almost mythical historical figure. He is able to handle the weight of the entire film, a daunting task for any actor but a challenge he rises to easily. Expect many viewers of the movie to be surprised at his native Irish accent during his speech, as he masks it in the film perfectly.

Best Actress – Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon” as Mollie Burkhart 

This is, without a doubt, the most competitive race among the acting categories, with most of the others seemingly having been decided for months now. Gladstone and “Poor Things’” Emma Stone have each picked up their share of prerequisite awards, but I’m picking Gladstone because she won the Screen Actors Guild Award, which is voted on by other actors. In “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Gladstone, the first Native American nominee in the history of her category, gives a subtle, haunted performance that encapsulates the pain her tribe feels as outside forces fight over control of their land. The Academy is also always vying to make history and be seen as more inclusive, and a Gladstone victory would represent a significant action towards achieving those goals.

Best Supporting Actor – Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer” as Lewis Strauss

One of the most famous actors on the planet, “Oppenheimer” is only Robert Downey Jr’s second role since he hung up the mantle of Iron Man in 2019. His work as the antagonistic Strauss provides the already haunting biopic a bureaucratic edge. He is an incredibly versatile actor, and the vindictiveness that emanates from his performance is a perfect demonstration of that range. He deserves to have an Academy Award victory on his extensive resume, and this is the right role to earn him the trophy.

Best Supporting Actress – Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers” as Mary Lamb

Randolph has swept the prerequisite awards, and for good reason. She transforms into the role of a prep-school cook and grieving mother, adding another layer of emotional depth to the complicated and heartfelt dramedy that is “The Holdovers”. Her work is the definition of a great supporting performance.

Best Original Screenplay – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, “Anatomy of a Fall”

A gripping French legal drama, “Anatomy of a Fall” won the top prize at the prestigious Cannes Film Festival and has picked up a wide array of awards in the U.S. for its screenplay. Despite facing a loaded category that includes “The Holdovers” and “May December”, two of my favorite films from last year, the evidence points to “Anatomy” winning over the Academy.

Best Adapted Screenplay – Cord Jefferson, “American Fiction”

Coming out of the summer of Barbenheimer, I would’ve picked Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach to be recognized for their witty “Barbie” screenplay. Despite both “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” being in this category, along with Best Picture heavyweights “The Zone of Interest” and “Poor Things”, I’m picking Cord Jefferson for his work on the satirical drama “American Fiction”. It’s a movie about a frustrated writer written by a former Gawker editor and TV writer, making it a shoo-in for the writing category.

Best Animated Feature Film – “The Boy and the Heron”

It’s tough picking any movie to beat “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”, which like the original “Spider-Verse” is a masterpiece in all regards. But the charming final outing of acclaimed Studio Ghibli animator Hiyao Miyazaki has quietly marched through awards season. If the Academy goes with the latter, it would undoubtedly make many upset, but “Spider-Verse” only receiving a nomination in this category when it was a contender for score and visual effects leads me to believe it didn’t excite voters as much as it did audiences.

Best International Film – “The Zone of Interest”

A haunting British-German Holocaust drama, “The Zone of Interest” is the only film in this category to also be nominated for Best Picture. While the Oscars have expanded the scope of the Best Picture category to include more international films, that has rendered this category largely irrelevant when one film is given the distinction of being among the top ten of the year.

Best Documentary – “20 Days in Mariupol”

Filmed by Ukrainian journalists at the onset of the Russian invasion, this gripping, boots-on-the-ground documentary represents the medium at its best. It brings the viewer into the heart of the conflict, and the heroism exhibited by the filmmakers makes it more than deserving of the Oscar.

Best Original Score – Ludwig Goransson, “Oppenheimer”

A producer for artists such as Childish Gambino, Goransson — a previous Oscar winner — turns in what might be his best work for “Oppenheimer”. His beautiful, rich score distills the emotion in each scene, elevating the film and resonating with the audience. It is by far the best composition in the category, making it an easy prediction.

Best Original Song – Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, “What Was I Made For?”

While I would love for “I’m Just Ken” to take this prize, I have to pick “Barbie”’s other nominated song, “What Was I Made For?” It’s a soulful song that represents the emotional core of last year’s biggest movie, written and performed by one of the biggest and most acclaimed names in the music industry. This is a no-brainer pick for the Academy to make.

Best Sound – “Oppenheimer” 

While “The Zone of Interest” is the movie that incorporates sound most purposefully into the filmmaking, the Oscars tend to lump together the technical and design awards rather than evaluate each nominee holistically. “Oppenheimer” has great sound both on a technical and storytelling level; there are moments of really powerful sound design that give the audience a window into Oppenheimer’s perspective as he reckons with the gravity of his actions.

Best Production Design – “Barbie”

Undoubtedly the most universal point of praise given to “Barbie” was for its immaculate production design. The work done to create Barbieland, which is practically a character in its own right, is some of the best that’s ever been done. While “Poor Things” is a solid contender in this category for creating a world that feels ripped from a dark, quirky 19th-century novel, the past year has proved that doubting “Barbie” is never a good bet.

Best Cinematography – Hoyte van Hoytema, “Oppenheimer”

While my favorite cinematography of this year comes from Matthew Libatique for “Maestro”, “Oppenheimer” is an undeniably beautiful film that uses its visual language to help the audience understand the film’s intangible concepts. It’s a film that can look gritty and polished, intimate and distant, emotional and subjective, depending on what the scene demands. van Hoytema has more than earned this Oscar.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling – “Maestro”

Speaking of “Maestro”, this is the one category where it really shines. Makeup and hairstyling are its most effective tools for bringing its story to life with its ability to age Bradley Cooper into the lonely and sullen Leonard Bernstein. Kazu Hiro, the lead of “Maestro”’s makeup and hairstyle team, has won Oscars for his last two films, both of which involve heavy prosthetic work to make actors look like the people they’re portraying. He’ll almost certainly score a hat trick with this award.

Best Costume Design – “Barbie”

With a wealth of outfit history to base each actor’s wardrobe on, the costume design team for Barbie more than rose to the occasion by making iconic looks that add greatly to the film’s realism despite how fantastical the story gets. This faces similar competition from “Poor Things” for similar reasons, but I’m betting on the Academy’s tendency to clump the design categories together.

Best Editing – “Oppenheimer”

The editing in “Oppenheimer”, a movie that tells its story out of order while juggling several perspectives, enables Christopher Nolan to control the flow of information the audience is receiving. It adds a level of suspense and audience retention to a story that would be sorely missing otherwise. Also, as a technical category, I expect the Academy to vote the same across both the sound and editing categories.

Best Visual Effects – “Godzilla Minus One”

A surprise hit, “Godzilla Minus One” manages to elevate Godzilla movies from run-of-the-mill monster flicks into an engaging social commentary about the dangers posed by nuclear weapons. As for the visual effects, what the team was able to accomplish with a budget of 10 million dollars — which is on the extreme lower end for a sci-fi film — is very impressive and adds to its storytelling. An Oscar for the film would celebrate the entire creative team for telling a story that pushes the boundaries of what a disaster film can be.

The Oscars air at 7 pm EST on ABC. Tune in to see how many of these predictions end up panning out!